Power system operation risk assessment based on credibility theory part one propound and development of operation risk assessment

The basic concept of operation risk assessment is presented, and characteristic of the differences among operation risk assessment, deterministic security assessment of traditional power dispatching and power system reliability analysis are summarized. The main objectives of the operation risk assessment are at two aspects: one is to assess the uncertainty factors in power system operation quantitatively and build the index systems of operation risk assessment; the other is to coordinate the security and economy of power system synthetically by taking the operation risk assessment indexes as the decision means. The development prospects of operation risk assessment of power system are analyzed by drawing analogy with nuclear power plant. Some important progresses in relevant researches of operation risk assessment at the two respective aspects of component and system security assessments are presented, and traditional research methods using for reference are introduced, and the research train of thoughts on risk assessment is described as well.