A predictive model of wind speed based on improved fuzzy analytical hierarchy process

In view of strong randomness of wind speed and based on improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a combined model to predict wind speed is presented. Taking predictive cycle of wind speed, fluctuation of wind speed and the reliability of predictor to the predictive model as objectives, by means of fuzzy judgment matrix the optimal weight of the combined model is determined. With the proposed combined model, various uncertain factors impacting wind speed prediction can be comprehensively taken into account, and the expert experiences can be led in on the basis of synthesizing prediction results from different predictive models. Analysis on results of calculation example shows that the prediction results by the proposed predictive model are more accurate than those from traditional single predictive model.