Floating photovoltaic technical potential: A novel geospatial approach on federally controlled reservoirs in the United States

Floating photovoltaic systems are a rapidly expanding sector of the solar energy industry, and understanding their role in future energy systems requires knowing their feasible potential. This paper presents a novel spatially explicit methodology estimating floating photovoltaic potential for federally controlled reservoirs in the United States and uses site-specific attributes of reservoirs to estimate potential generation capacity. The analysis finds the average percent area that is found to be available for floating photovoltaic development is similar to assumed values used in previous research; however, there is wide variability in this proportion on a site-by-site basis. Potential floating photovoltaic generation capacity on these reservoirs is estimated to be in the range of 861 to 1,042 GW direct current (GWdc) depending on input assumptions, potentially representing approximately half of future U.S. solar generation needs for a decarbonized grid. This work represents an advancement in methods used to estimate floating photovoltaic potential that presents many natural extensions for further research.