A statistical perspective on natural gas distribution pipeline incidents in the United States

Natural gas distribution pipelines are essential for transporting natural gas from larger transmission pipelines to end users, including residential, commercial, and industrial facilities. The frequency of pipeline incidents and the potential for significant resulting losses have garnered considerable attention from stakeholders. This study conducts a statistical analysis of the incident characteristics of natural gas distribution systems in the U.S. Over the past thirty years, a general decline has been observed in both the number of incidents and the incident rate, reflecting similar downward trends in annual injuries and fatalities. However, the annual costs associated with incidents demonstrate minimal correlation with the total number of incidents, suggesting that multiple minor incidents may contribute substantially to overall losses. Pipelines constructed from different materials exhibit distinct failure patterns, particularly concerning the age of the pipelines. Statistical analysis reveals significant differences in the consequences of incidents, including injuries, fatalities, and total costs, across various pipeline attributes, such as pipe material, system type, incident location, cause, and type of incident. These findings highlight the necessity of incorporating these factors when modeling the consequences of natural gas distribution pipeline incidents. A detailed comparison of incident characteristics for distribution mains and service lines is also presented, utilizing a Zero-Inflated Poisson model to assess casualties associated with each pipeline incident. The results of this study offer valuable insights into the incident characteristics of natural gas distribution pipelines and can enhance safety and integrity management for these critical infrastructure systems.