Modeling for Quantitative Analysis of Risk Factors of Railway Rail Break Event

被引：0
|
作者：
An R. [1 ]
Jia C. [2 ]
Wang D. [3 ]
Liu R. [2 ]
Wang F. [1 ]
机构：
[1] State Key Laboratory of Rail Traffic Control and Safety, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing
[2] School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing
[3] Journal Editorial Department, China Railway Society, Beijing
来源：
Tiedao Xuebao/Journal of the China Railway Society | 2019年 / 41卷 / 02期
关键词：
Cox's proportional hazards model; Rail break event; Railway line grid; Risk factors;
D O I：
10.3969/j.issn.1001-8360.2019.02.003
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
The occurrence of rail break event is influenced by many factors and accurate identification of the effects of these factors is necessary for appropriate control of the rail break risk. In this study, a continuous railway line was divided into several consecutive 200-m-long grids. The factors-including human, equipment, environmental, and management factors that affect the occurrence of rail break events in different grid units-were then precisely quantified for the different grids. Based on the results, a method for quantitative analysis of the effects of the risk factors on rail break event was developed using the Cox's proportional hazards model. The validity of the model was verified by using the data on broken rails and life cycle data of rail production and management process acquired from the Daqin heavy-haul railway in China. This research creatively applied the Cox's proportional hazards model to the quantitative analysis of risk factors of railway rail break event, providing theoretical and practical significance for the risk control of railway system. © 2019, Department of Journal of the China Railway Society. All right reserved.
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页码：16 / 22
页数：6
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