Impact of human activities on the long-term change and seasonal variability of Ebinur Lake, Northwest China

Inland lakes in arid Central Asia are particularly susceptible to the impact of climate change and human activities.Ebinur Lake, the largest salt inland lake in Xinjiang, Northwest China, has experienced rapid shrinkage, with human activities identified as the primary influencing factor. However, it remains unclear how human water use in different sectors, such as irrigation, husbandry, and industry, is responsible for the long-term change and seasonal variability of the lake area under changing climate. This study aims to address this knowledge gap by developing an integrated hydrological-socioeconomic-lake model that simulates the changes in the Ebinur Lake area during the period of 1950–2020. The simulated lake area changes under different model experiments were then compared with separate the impacts of climate change and human water use of different sectors. The results indicate that climate change, irrigation, husbandry, and industry water uses have contributed +5%,-79%,-25%, and-1% of the long-term change in the lake area, respectively. Despite climate change alone increasing the lake area, the increase in human water use has resulted in the persistent decline of Ebinur Lake. Notably, husbandry water use emerges as a significant contributor to lake shrinkage, accounting for approximately one-third of the impact of irrigation. Furthermore,irrigation water use has contributed to the enhanced seasonal variability, as indicated by the difference between the maximum and minimum monthly lake area in a year. This difference has increased from 120 km2 in the 1950s to 183 km2 in the 2010s.