Numerical Modeling Method for Probability Distribution of Electric Vehicle Charging Load

被引：0
|
作者：
Zhang Y. [1 ]
Guo L. [1 ]
Liu Y. [1 ]
Li X. [2 ]
Yin C. [3 ]
机构：
[1] Key Laboratory of the Ministry of Education on Smart Power Grids, Tianjin University, Tianjin
[2] National Key Laboratory on Operation and Control of Renewable Energy and Energy Storage (China Electric Power Research Institute), Beijing
[3] Economic Research Institute of State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co., Ltd., Hefei
来源：
Dianli Xitong Zidonghua/Automation of Electric Power Systems | 2021年 / 45卷 / 18期
关键词：
Charging load modeling; Law of large numbers; Numerical calculation method; Origin destination analysis; Probability model;
D O I：
10.7500/AEPS20201210011
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
Traditional probability modeling of electric vehicle charging load is usually based on the Monte Carlo simulation method, which faces the problems such as a large number of coupling parameters and long time computing. To this end, this paper proposes a numerical calculation method for the probability distribution of electric vehicle charging load based on probability distribution characteristics of the combined state of charge (CSOC) for vehicle collection. Firstly, multiple trips of the same vehicle are disassembled into independent single trips, and origin destination (OD) analysis is carried out on single trips to reduce the parameter coupling error in the modeling of multiple trips. Secondly, the CSOC dynamic probability model considering the probability characteristics of travelling of vehicles is established to determine the probability density function of the initial state of charge (SOC) for single trips. Then, combining the law of large numbers, the spatial-temporal probability distribution function of electric vehicle charging load is established. Finally, a 12-bus road network case is used to calculate the spatial-temporal probability distribution of the charging load. The results show that compared with the traditional Monte Carlo simulation method, the proposed method does not have the problem of coupling error, and greatly improves the calculation efficiency on the premise of ensuring the calculation accuracy. © 2021 Automation of Electric Power Systems Press.
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页码：61 / 70
页数：9
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