Semi-analytical Method for Rapid Estimation of Orbital Uncertainty

被引：0
|
作者：
Yu Y. [1 ]
Yue C. [2 ]
Li H. [1 ]
Chen X. [1 ]
Liu P. [3 ]
机构：
[1] Research Center of the Satellite Technology, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin
[2] Institude of Space Science and Applied Technology, Harbin Institute of Technology（ShenZhen）, ShenZhen
[3] ShangHai Satellite Engineering Research Institute High Tech Company, ShangHai
来源：
Yuhang Xuebao/Journal of Astronautics | 2024年 / 45卷 / 03期
关键词：
Gaussian mixture model; Orbit prediction; Orbital elements; Spherical simplex sigma-point selection; Uncertainty propagation; Unscented transformation;
D O I：
10.3873/j.issn.1000-1328.2024.03.007
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
A fast orbital uncertainty propagation method is proposed based on semi-analytical method and spherical simplex sigma-point selection unscented transformation. Firstly，on consideration of the J2 perturbation and atmospheric drag，an analytical model with secular term，long periodic term and short periodic term of orbital elements is constructed as the dynamics model for fast orbital elements propagation. Subsequently，the spherical simplex sigma-point selection unscented transformation is chosen to propagate the initial orbital uncertainty. Then，modification is done to adjust the sigma-points according to the Gauss variational equations and the characteristics of the spherical simplex sigma-points to estimate the probability density function of the final orbital uncertainty. Finally，the proposed semi-analytical method is combined with the Gaussian mixture model to improve the accuracy. In the simulation analysis，the computational efficiency of the proposed orbital uncertainty estimation method is analyzed compared with that of the traditional unscented transformation method. Then，the accuracy of these methods is evaluated based on the likelihood agreement measure. The results show that the calculation efficiency of the proposed method is improved compared to the traditional unscented transformation method，and is with appropriate accuracy. © 2024 Chinese Society of Astronautics. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码：399 / 408
页数：9
相关论文
共 32 条
  • [1] LUO Y Z，, YANG Z., A review of uncertainty propagation in orbital mechanics［J］, Progress in Aerospace Sciences, 89, pp. 23-39, (2017)
  • [2] LI Shuang, GONG Yifei, LI Kehang, Et al., Distributed autonomous relative navigation method for satellite cluster with time-varying topology［J］, Journal of Astronautics, 44, 1, pp. 119-131, (2023)
  • [3] OUYANG Qi, CHEN Ming, LI Cuilan, Et al., Application of PCE method in orbit prediction error analysis of space laboratory ［J］, Journal of Astronautics, 40, 11, pp. 1286-1295, (2019)
  • [4] KAYAL H., Propagation of grid-scale density model uncertainty to orbital uncertainties［J］, Advances in Space Research, 65, 1, pp. 407-418, (2020)
  • [5] Nonlinear effects in the correlation of tracks and covariance propagation［J］, Acta Astronautica, 84, pp. 69-80, (2013)
  • [6] JIANG H Y, ZHANG M J, WANG H B，, Et al., Orbital error propagation considering atmospheric density uncertainty［J］, Advances in Space Research, 71, 6, pp. 2566-2574, (2023)
  • [7] YANG Zhen, Nonlinear method for orbit targeting and uncertainty propagation, (2018)
  • [8] JULIER S J，, UHLMANN J K., Unscented filtering and nonlinear estimation［J］, Proceedings of the IEEE, 92, 3, pp. 401-422, (2004)
  • [9] PARK R S, SCHEERES D J., Nonlinear semi-analytic methods for trajectory estimation［J］, Journal of Guidance，Control，and Dynamics, 30, 6, pp. 1668-1676, (2007)
  • [10] ARMELLIN R., Long-term density evolution through semi-analytical and differential algebra techniques［J］, Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy, 128, 4, pp. 435-452, (2017)
1234