Long-term hydroclimatic projections and climate change scenarios at regional scale in Morocco

Morocco urgently needs an updated understanding of its water resources, considering the current knowledge's insufficient and uncertain state. Incorporating the latest Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) is crucial for a more accurate and informed assessment. This study aims to bridge this gap by examining the hydrological dynamics of major basins, offering insights vital for strategic water resource management. To unravel Morocco's hydrological future, we employed an integrative methodology encompassing advanced spatial analyses, watershed hydrological modeling through the 'Water Yield' module of InVEST, and climate change scenario projections from CMIP6. Leveraging reputable databases for land cover, soil, and climate data, we ensured a robust foundation for the projections applied. This comprehensive approach facilitated a nuanced examination of water availability, considering the intricate interplay of various factors. The findings unveil a concerning projection, anticipating water yield declines between 23% and 51% by 2080 and 43%-61% by 2100 across the 12 basins. The northwest and north areas, currently endowed with better water availability, face the most substantial reductions. Economic repercussions loom, with potential losses ranging from -0.8 to -8.5 billion USD by 2100, urging strategic interventions to avert potential GDP declines of 2.8%-17.1%. The study highlights the scenariodependent sensitivity of water supply to varying levels of climate change. In the context of the North African region, Morocco's hydroclimatic challenges assume heightened significance. As a pivotal player in the region, Morocco's water resource management impacts its socio-economic landscape as well as resonates regionally. The outcome of proactive measures and strategic planning can potentially set a precedent for neighboring countries grappling with similar hydrological uncertainties, fostering regional resilience in the face of escalating water stress. The study's insights, therefore, carry broader implications, positioning Morocco as a key influencer in shaping sustainable water management practices across North Africa.