An LMDI-based investigation of the changes in carbon emissions of the transportation sector in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Employing the LMDI decomposition model, this study examines how factors such as service-based carbon intensity, transportation structure, energy efficiency, energy intensity, economic structure, level of economic development, and population have influenced the carbon emissions of the transportation sector of the Yangtze River Economic Belt over the period of 2000 to 2019, along with the temporal and spatial characteristics. The Theil index is also applied to measure the regional heterogeneity effects, if any. The results show that the continuous expansion of the economy is the primary leading factor for the growth of carbon emissions of the transportation sector in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and its positive driving effects are at a rate of 116.33%, far exceeding that of population (6.19%), the second leading factor. The changes in the transportation structure and the economic structure are key factors to restrain the growth of carbon emissions, with their negative driving rates being -26.18% and -16.25%, respectively. The technological progress factors (energy efficiency and energy intensity) help slow down the increases also. Besides, both the per capita carbon emissions- and the carbon emission intensity-based Theil index values indicate that heterogeneity between provinces or municipalities exists for carbon emissions of the transportation sector in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and the differences within regions are greater than those between regions. The carbon emission intensity-based regional differences particularly exhibit club convergence effects. Thereupon, policy suggestions are derived for greener development of transportation in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. © 2022 Chinese Society for Environmental Sciences. All rights reserved.