Analysis of the performance of carbon emissions trading right in China-The evaluation based on the difference-in-difference model

The paper examined whether the mechanism of pilot project for carbon emissions trading right could promote the low-carbon economy transformation in China after controlling some important explanatory variables such as the environmental regulation. The results showed that in the global DEA framework, the industrial total factor productivity lacked of ability to enhance both in the provinces which launched the pilot project for carbon emissions trading right and in those which didn't during the inspection period. From the point of potential double dividend, the measures to reduce emissions were not so flexible in the non-pilot provinces as those in the pilot provinces, so that there was still a large release space for the economic dividend and environmental dividend in the non-pilot provinces. The policy effect analysis based on the difference-in-difference model of kernel matching presented that the mechanism of carbon emissions trading right could reduce the total amount of carbon emissions at the present stage to some extent, but its impact on economic output was weak; the pilot project didn't improve the industrial total factor productivity in the pilot provinces while it enhanced significantly the technological progress rate. Therefore, the mechanism of carbon emissions trading right supported the 'weak Porter hypothesis' for technological innovation to a certain extent, but didn't give evidences to support the 'strong Porter hypothesis' for total factor productivity. It should be a necessary measure to realize the low-carbon economy transformation in China. © 2017, Editorial Board of China Environmental Science. All right reserved.