Prediction of Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly of Lower Yangtze River Basin Based on GRACE and GLDAS

The terrestrial water storage anomalies(TWSA)of lower Yangtze River basin during 2002-2015 were re-constructed by using GRACE data and analyzed with the TWS simulated by global land data assimilation system(GLDAS)from the aspects of trend and correlation. According to the result, the future TWSA data were predicted by the improved grey-Makov model with the long series GLDAS data. The results show that both TWSA and TWS in lower Yangtze River basin exhibit an upward but not significant trend. The same trend and high correlation coefficient(up to 0.79)indicate a functional relationship between the two elements. Based on the improved grey-Markov model, the ranges of TWSA in 2016 and 2017 are(7.37, cm, 12.05, cm] and(7.29, cm, 11.25, cm], respectively, which mean that the lower Yangtze River basin will stay in wet situation in the two years. Flood will highly likely take place in this area and more attention should be paid to the safety control. © 2017, Editorial Board of Journal of Tianjin University(Science and Technology). All right reserved.