Threat assessment method based on Bayesian network

To process the problems of the threat assessment of ground battlefield, a Bayesian network-based threat assessment method was presented. Experts' knowledge was used to construct Bayesian network model. After matched with some situation records according to a proposed matching algorithm, the situation nodes in the Bayesian network got their probability values based on evidence reliability and dynamic prior probability. The probability of each value of the threat level node was computed by propagating the probability values through the Bayesian network with Pearl's message-massing algorithm by which the threat level was got. Based on this method and a simplified Bayesian network with different prior probability values, simulation assessments in different situations were made. The assessment result is credible and consistent with common sense which shows that this method is feasible for threat assessment.