A spatial approach for future-oriented heat planning in urban areas

The current climate protection goals will lead to unprecedented and profound changes to energy systems. The transition to a decarbonized heat supply system will be complex and the process will have deep impact on the urban subsystems (technical, economic, social and planning subsystems) with different spatial extents. For decision making in this context, the level of individual buildings provides a perspective which is too narrow. On the other hand a very broad view is also unhelpful for the local transition process. There is a tension between individual decisions at the building level and a large-scale implementation strategy for heating grids. This article shows an innovative way to analyse heat demand data with the help of fuzzy logic and spatial mapping of the suitability of different heat supply systems. At the subsequent planning level, the results can be used as guard rails to make the urban planning process more consistent and transparent. © 2018, Aalborg University press. All rights reserved.