Analysis of the dam overtopping failure fuzzy risk under consideration of the upstream dam-break flood

被引：0

作者：

Zhang R. ^{[1
,2
]}

Zhang S. ^{[2
]}

Wang B. ^{[1
]}

Wang H. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] School of Hydraulic Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian

[2] China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing

来源：

Shuili Xuebao/Journal of Hydraulic Engineering | 2016年 / 47卷 / 04期

关键词：

Dam-break flood; Overtopping failure fuzzy risk; Trapezoidal fuzzy number;

D O I：

10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20150539

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

In this study a dam overtopping failure fuzzy risk is described under consideration of the upstream dam-break flood and a new risk model is presented to evaluate its failure fuzzy risk probability. Unlike other techniques previously proposed in the literature, the suggested approach is used the trapezoidal fuzzy number to show the complicated relationship between the fuzzy interval of risk indicator and failure probability and an uncompleted reservoir is taken as a case study. The results indicate that (1)the analysis model based on trapezoidal fuzzy number can describe the uncertainty of the complicated risk analysis system efficiently and accurately;(2)although the failure risk probability for the dam overtopping under consideration of the upstream dam-break flood is higher than the acceptable maximum probability at high water levels, establishing systems for early warning and lowering the water level can significantly reduce the risk and ensure the reservoir's safety operation. © 2016, China Water Power Press. All right reserved.

引用

页码：509 / 517

页数：8

共 3 条

[1] Su H., Wen Z., Interval risk analysis for gravity dam instability, Engineering Failure Analysis, 33, pp. 83-96, (2013)
[2] Kaufmann A., Gupta M., Introduction to Fuzzy Arithmetic: Theory and Applications, (1985)
[3] Chen Z., Ma L., Chen S., Et al., Back analysis of the draining process of Tangjiashan Barrier Lake, Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 14, pp. 01-04, (2015)

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