KR09 Using Historical Lessons-Learned in the Systems Engineering Process

Systems engineers often do not have a way to systematically apply historical lessons-learned’ in their day-to-day activities, especially when applied to non-traditional areas of engineering management. Risk analysis has become the standard systems engineering decision-making tool to evaluate uncertainties in cost, schedule and performance. Therefore, such historical insights need to be modeled within that framework to be mutually comprehensible and useful to both historians and systems engineers. To demonstrate this framework, I examine historical lessons-learned in several relevant areas: the implications of operational flexibility on system design; complex system-accident theory; and the considerations of technological reverse salients. The insights developed through historical analyses can be used as a decision-making tool for systems engineers, by developing a subjective risk rating assessment as a part of the overall set of decision aids to estimate uncertainty in performance, cost and schedule. This interface between historical insights and the priorities of systems engineers can enrich the basis of programmatic decision-making. © 2008 The Authors.