Uncertainty Models of Statistical Forecast Uncertainty of Intermittent Power Sources

To quantitatively depict the statistical forecast uncertainty of intermittent power sources, this paper not only defined the concept of power generation uncertainty, but also proposed a statistical function system to show the relationship between statistical forecast uncertainty and time advance. Firstly, statistical function α(t) was applied to describe the uncertainties of the wind and solar power sources; Secondly, statistical function【公式】of all power sources ware combined into an sum statistical functionαΣ(t) with multiple time constants; Thirdly, the sum statistical functionαΣ(t) was then turned into an equivalent statistical functionα[t,τ(t)] with single-time constant by order-reduction; Lastly, the equivalent statistical functionα[t,τ(t)] was finally turned into a profile statistical functionα(t,τ0) by ascertaining the single time coefficient function. The amplitude and time constant are the two numerical characteristics of statistical functionsα, which characterize the statistical forecast uncertainty of intermittent power sources. Four propositions are further put forward and illustrated, which guarantee the rigor of the proposed αstatistical function system. © 2018 Chin. Soc. for Elec. Eng.