4D trajectory prediction and uncertainty analysis for departure aircraft

In order to accelerate the implementation of trajectory-based operation (TBO), a new four-dimensional (4D) aircraft trajectory prediction approach that is based on aircraft continuous dynamics and discrete dynamics model was presented to predict trajectories of departure aircraft by dividing the departure operation into taking-off and climbing phases. Through in-depth analysis of factors such as the model construction, aircraft intent, initial state, performance parameters, and environmental information, the uncertainty in 4D aircraft trajectory prediction was reduced and the accuracy of prediction was improved. Taking the domestic flight CQH8867 from ZSPD to ZUCK as an example, a simulation was conducted to verify the validity of the proposed method, in which the position error and time error were chosen as the evaluation criteria, and the influences of the takeoff mass, top-of-climb (TOC) altitude, wind speed and wind direction on the departure aircraft 4D trajectory prediction were taken into account. Results show that the proposed algorithm can control the error between expected and actual time of arrival at departure fix within 1 min to meet the demand for air traffic management. © 2016, Editorial Department of Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University. All right reserved.