Decision-making method based on new preference algorithm and improved cumulative prospect theory

被引：1
|
作者：
Xiang H. [1 ]
Li J. [1 ]
Chen Y. [1 ]
Li Z. [1 ]
机构：
[1] Equipment Management and UAV Engineering College, Air Force Engineering University, Xi'an
来源：
Xi Tong Gong Cheng Yu Dian Zi Ji Shu/Systems Engineering and Electronics | 2018年 / 40卷 / 12期
关键词：
Cumulative prospect theory; Group decision making; Interval psychological reference point; Multi-attribute; Preference degree;
D O I：
10.3969/j.issn.1001-506X.2018.12.18
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
In view of the uncertainty and complexity of decision-making problems, as well as the unknown weights of the attributes and the experts, a decision-making method based on new preference model and improved cumulative prospect theory is proposed. Firstly, the basic framework of the group decision-making problem is defined, and the attribute values and the psychological reference points are improved to the interval values. Secondly, the new preference model is defined according to the two-dimensional geometric representation of the interval psychological reference points to determine the attribute weights and the expert weights. Thirdly, the experts' opinion and psychological behavior are taken into account. Based on the positional relationship between the attribute values and the interval psychological reference points, the formulas of gains and losses are obtained, and then the overall prospect values and ranking relationship of each alternative are determined. Finally, the case analysis and comparison illustrate the validity, feasibility and practicability of the proposed method. © 2018, Editorial Office of Systems Engineering and Electronics. All right reserved.
引用
下载
收藏
页码：2743 / 2750
页数：7
相关论文
共 30 条
  • [1] Tversky A., Kahneman D., Advances in prospect theory: cumulative representation of uncertainty, Journal of Risk & Uncertainty, 5, 4, pp. 297-323, (1992)
  • [2] Kahneman D., Tversky A., Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk, Econometrica, 47, 2, pp. 263-291, (1979)
  • [3] Wakker P.P., Prospect Theory: for Risk and Ambiguity, (2010)
  • [4] Barberis N.C., Thirty years of prospect theory in economics: a review and assessment, Social Science Electronic Publishing, 27, 1, pp. 173-195, (2013)
  • [5] Schmidt U., Starmer C., Sugden R., Third-generation prospect theory, Journal of Risk & Uncertainty, 36, 3, pp. 203-223, (2008)
  • [6] Best M.J., Grauer R.R., Prospect theory and portfolio selection, Journal of Behavioral & Experimental Finance, 11, pp. 13-17, (2016)
  • [7] Bromiley P., A prospect theory model of resource allocation, Decision Analysis, 6, 3, pp. 124-138, (2016)
  • [8] Levy H., Levy M., Prospect theory and the investment horizon, (2017)
  • [9] Grishina N., Lucas C.A., Date P., Prospect theory-based portfolio optimization: an empirical study and analysis using intelligent algorithms, Quantitative Finance, 17, pp. 353-367, (2017)
  • [10] Li X., Decision-making method of highway network planning based on prospect theory, Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 96, pp. 2042-2050, (2013)
123