Identification of environmental risk influencing factors for ship operations in Arctic waters

被引：0
|
作者：
Fu S. [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Zhang D. [1 ,2 ]
Zhang M. [1 ,2 ]
Yan X. [1 ,2 ]
机构：
[1] Intelligent Transportation System Research Center, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan
[2] National Engineering Research Center for Water Transport Safety, Wuhan
[3] College of Ocean Science and Engineering, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai
来源：
Zhang, Di (zhangdi@whut.edu.cn) | 1682年 / Editorial Board of Journal of Harbin Engineering卷 / 38期
关键词：
Analytic hierarchy process; Arctic waters; Fuzzy sets; Monte Carlo simulation; Navigational environment; Risk identification; Risk influencing factors;
D O I：
10.11990/jheu.201606050
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
To identify problems pertaining to environmental risk factors during ship operations in Arctic waters, this study designs a systematic model to determine environmental risk influencing factors (RIFs) using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Owing to existing uncertainty problems in identifying the RIFs, a Monte Carlo based fuzzy AHP (MC-FAHP) approach is proposed to analyze the relative importance of RIFs via integrating the AHP, fuzzy sets (triangular fuzzy numbers, TFNs), and the Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed MC-FAHP method is used to identify the critical environmental RIFs occurring during ship operations in Arctic waters. Furthermore, the rationality of environmental RIF identification studies is validated using data and model aspects. The results identify wind, visibility, ice concentration, and temperature as critical RIFs involved in safe ship operations in Arctic waters. © 2017, Editorial Department of Journal of HEU. All right reserved.
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页码：1682 / 1688
页数：6
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