Threshold dynamics of a switching diffusion SIR model with logistic growth and healthcare resources

In this article, we have constructed a stochastic SIR model with healthcare resources and logistic growth, aiming to explore the effect of random environment and healthcare resources on disease transmission dynamics. We have showed that under mild extra conditions, there exists a critical parameter, i.e., the basic reproduction number Rs0 , which completely determines the dynamics of disease: when Rs0 < 1, the disease is eradicated; while when Rs0 > 1, the disease is persistent. To validate our theoretical findings, we conducted some numerical simulations using actual parameter values of COVID-19. Both our theoretical and simulation results indicated that (1) the white noise can significantly affect the dynamics of a disease, and importantly, it can shift the stability of the disease-free equilibrium; (2) infectious disease resurgence may be caused by random switching of the environment; and (3) it is vital to maintain adequate healthcare resources to control the spread of disease. © 2024 American Institute of Mathematical Sciences. All rights reserved.