Quantitative disaster chain risk analysis

This paper presents a methodology for quantitative risk analyses of disaster chains. The methodology describes the probability, frequency, and consequences of disaster chains. The probability analysis first uses a hierarchy process to analyze the initial disaster and compute the probability of inducing other events. Then, a composite probability analysis is used to assess the consequences of subsequent events to evaluate the probability, frequency and consequences of disaster chain scenarios that may follow the initial event. Finally, the quantitative risk of the disaster chain scenario is assessed using evolutionary dynamics and methods based on an index system. The application of the methodology to an initial seismic event indicates that the method can predict the quantitative risks of disaster chains.