Simulation and forecast study of land use change based on CA-Markov model

In order to explore the influence of land use change and driving forces in the process of urban development, this paper took Shunyi District, Beijing as an example and analyzed the dynamic changes of land use types in the study area. Meanwhile, the direction and degree of the transformation of land use based on Markov model with three remote sensing images in 2000, 2005 and 2010 were analyzed. Combined with GIS analysis function, the influence of various land use driving forces on land use types was discussed, and the factors of land use transformation were standardized by using fuzzy calculation and intergrated by using weighted linear combination method. CA-Markov model was used to simulate the distribution of land use in 2010. The accuracy of the proposed simulation results obtained was as high as 81.41%, the Kappa index was 0.776 9. The feasibility and accuracy of the proposed method were proved. Based on the patterns of land use in 2010, the land use status of the land in 2020 was predicted and land use changes from 2010 to 2020 were analyzed. In addition to grassland and forest, the area of cultivated land and water continues maintaining the trend of reducing, but the trend is slowing down. And construction land is still increasing. This study provides scientific support for the planning and decision making of land use in the present and future. © 2016, Chinese Society of Agricultural Machinery. All right reserved.