Probability distribution of wind power fluctuation characteristics based on heavy-tailed distribution

被引：0
|
作者：
Du G. [1 ]
Zhao D. [1 ]
Liu X. [2 ]
Wu Z. [2 ]
Li C. [3 ]
机构：
[1] School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing
[2] Changchun Power Supply Company of State Grid Jilin Electric Power Co., Ltd., Changchun
[3] Training Center of State Grid Jilin Electric Power Co., Ltd., Changchun
来源：
Dianli Zidonghua Shebei/Electric Power Automation Equipment | 2021年 / 41卷 / 07期
关键词：
Fluctuation characteristics; Information entropy; Leptokurtosis and fat-tail; Probability distribution; Relative entropy; Wind power;
D O I：
10.16081/j.epae.202104003
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
The research of wind power fluctuation characteristics is of great significance for improving the accuracy of wind power prediction, promoting the consumption of wind power integration, and restraining the adverse effects of wind power integration on safe operation of power system. Based on the measured data of wind farms, four basic characteristics of wind power fluctuation characteristics of time-varying, heteroscedasticity, fluctuation agglomeration, and "leptokurtosis and fat-tail" are summarized. In order to quantitatively describe the probability distribution of wind power, the normal distribution, mixed Gaussian distribution and t Location-scale distribution, stable distribution and Laplacian distribution in the heavy-tailed distribution are respectively adopted to fit the wind power fluctuation rate under different time and space scales. The relative entropy is introduced as an evaluation index to measure the pros and cons of fitting distributions, and the evaluation results of different fitting distributions are compared and analyzed. The simulative results show that the probability distribution of wind power is more suitable to be described by the heavy-tailed distribution function, in which the t Location-scale distribution function has the best fitting effect. © 2021 Electric Power Automation Equipment Editorial Department. All right reserved.
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页码：52 / 57and72
页数：5720
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