Research on multi-period optimization of biomass fuel supply chain under multiple uncertainties

被引：0
|
作者：
Zhang D. [1 ]
Gao W. [1 ]
Li S. [2 ]
机构：
[1] School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Central South University, Changsha
[2] College of Logistics and Transportation, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha
来源：
Journal of Railway Science and Engineering | 2023年 / 20卷 / 06期
关键词：
biomass fuel supply chain; improved nested Benders decomposition algorithm; multi-period; multiple uncertainties; stochastic optimization;
D O I：
10.19713/j.cnki.43-1423/u.T20221189
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
Biomass fuel is a renewable energy source with great potential, which has attracted more and more attention in recent years. The application of biomass fuels in municipal and transportation fields is an important measure to reduce carbon emissions and has received strong support from the Chinese government. However, the high uncertainty of raw material supply and market fluctuation and other factors make the biomass fuel industry face great challenges. To improve the production ratio of biomass fuels and promote the rational allocation of resources, an optimization study was carried out on the biomass fuel supply chain network. By analyzing the multiple uncertainties of raw material supply, customer demand, and price fluctuations and taking the maximum expected profit as the optimization goal, a multi-period stochastic optimization model of biomass fuel supply chain considering multiple uncertainties was constructed. Under the multi-period background, the stochastic discrete scenario simulation and scenario tree method were integrated to portray the above-mentioned uncertain factors, and an equivalent deterministic model was constructed. The model features were combined to design a solution algorithm based on the combination of Nested Benders Decomposition (NBD) and Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP). Finally, the influences of different uncertainties on profit and inventory cost were compared and analyzed through illustrative numerical simulations. The research results show that the increase of demand or supply volatility leads to a decrease in supply chain profits, and supply uncertainty has a greater impact on the supply chain than demand uncertainty. Therefore, decision makers can focus more on the stable supply of raw materials to obtain higher profits. Reasonable inventory can hedge against the adverse effects of market fluctuations and ensure the production operation of biomass fuels. Product price fluctuations or declines expose enterprises to greater operational risks. © 2023, Central South University Press. All rights reserved.
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页码：2026 / 2036
页数：10
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