Impact of EnKF Surface and Rawinsonde Data Assimilation on the Simulation of the Extremely Heavy Rainfall in Beijing on July 21, 2012

被引：0
|
作者：
Meng Z. [1 ]
Tang X. [1 ]
Yue J. [2 ]
Bai L. [1 ]
Huang L. [3 ]
机构：
[1] Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing
[2] National Meteorological Center, Beijing
[3] Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing
来源：
Beijing Daxue Xuebao (Ziran Kexue Ban)/Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis | 2019年 / 55卷 / 02期
关键词：
7•21 heavy rainfall; Beijing; Cyclonic vortex; Extremely heavy rainfall; Inverted trough;
D O I：
10.13209/j.0479-8023.2019.004
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
Regarding the forecasting errors of operational models for the high-impact extremely heavy rainfall event in Beijing on July 21, 2012, this work examines the impact of assimilating surface and rawinsonde observations using EnKF data assimilation system on the simulation of rainfall distribution and the surface features in the initiation period of the rainfall in Beijing, and reveals the possible reasons for the forecasting errors. Results show that data assimilation significantly improves the simulation of rainfall distribution, confirming that the cyclonic vortex is the key influencing system of the heavy rainfall event, which was proposed by previous researchers based on observations and sensitivity analyses. This work also reveals that the surface low and its associated inverted trough are the direct producers of the rainfall in Beijing. These results indicate that the reason of the failure of the operational models in this extremely heavy rainfall is the large forecasting errors in the strength and location of the cyclonic vortex and the associated inverted trough eastward of the surface low. © 2019 Peking University.
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页码：237 / 245
页数：8
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