Parameter calibration and reliability analysis of an aero-engine rotor based on multi-source heterogeneous information

被引：0
|
作者：
Yang L. [1 ,2 ]
Wang C. [1 ]
机构：
[1] School of Mechanical Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing
[2] Department of Systems Engineering, City University of Hong Kong
来源：
Hangkong Xuebao/Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica | 2023年 / 44卷 / 23期
基金：
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词：
mixed uncertainty; multi-source heterogeneous information; multistate system; reliability analysis; sur⁃ vival signature;
D O I：
10.7527/S1000-6893.2023.28575
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
The accuracy of reliability analysis results of complex systems is closely related to the accuracy of input pa⁃ rameters. A stochastic model correction and parameter calibration method based on Bayesian maximum entropy is proposed to solve the reliability analysis problem containing multi-source uncertain information. By converting multi-source statistical information（such as moment information and reliability）into constraint conditions，this method trans⁃ forms parameter estimation into uncertainty optimization problem. Further considering the mixed uncertainty，Wasser⁃ stein distance is introduced to construct the likelihood function，and the approximation algorithm is used to improve the computational efficiency. This method extends the application scope of classical Bayesian inference by adding en⁃ tropy term" and can deal with multi-source heterogeneous data and mixed uncertainty problems. A multi-state system reliability model based on survival signature was established for a multi-component aero-engine rotor system，and the reliability analysis was carried out by using the above method. Through comparative analysis，it was verified that the proposed method has higher accuracy and stronger robustness than the traditional method. © 2023 AAAS Press of Chinese Society of Aeronautics and Astronautics. All rights reserved."
引用
收藏
相关论文
共 26 条
  • [1] YOU L F, ZHANG J G, ZHOU S，, Et al., A new method for fatigue reliability calculation of aero-engine limited life parts［J］, Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica, 40, 12, (2019)
  • [2] TAO C H., Failure analysis and prevention for rotor in aero-engine［M］, (2000)
  • [3] GUO J, LI M Y., A review on prognostics meth⁃ ods for engineering systems［J］, IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 69, 3, pp. 1110-1129, (2020)
  • [4] BEER M., The role of the Bhat⁃ tacharyya distance in stochastic model updating［J］, Me⁃ chanical Systems and Signal Processing, 117, pp. 437-452, (2019)
  • [5] CHING J, PORTER K A., Bayesian state and parameter estimation of uncertain dynamical systems ［J］, Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, 21, 1, pp. 81-96, (2006)
  • [6] JAYNES E T., Information theory and statistical mechan⁃ ics［J］, Physical Review, 106, 4, pp. 620-630, (1957)
  • [7] JAYNES E T., Prior probabilities［J］, IEEE Transactions on Systems Science and Cybernetics, 4, 3, pp. 227-241, (1968)
  • [8] Updat⁃ ing probabilities with data and moments［C］∥AIP Con⁃ ference Proceedings, pp. 74-84, (2007)
  • [9] GIFFIN A., Maximum entropy：the universal method for inference［EB/OL］, (2009)
  • [10] GIFFIN A., From physics to economics：an econometric example using maximum relative entropy［J］, Physica A：Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 388, 8, pp. 1610-1620, (2009)
123