Construction of non-stationary hydrological drought assessment methods based on time-varying parameters and thresholds

被引：0
|
作者：
Wang M. [1 ]
Jiang S. [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Ren L. [1 ,3 ]
Yang X. [3 ]
Fang X. [3 ]
Yan D. [1 ,2 ,3 ]
机构：
[1] The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing
[2] State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing
[3] College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing
来源：
Shuili Xuebao/Journal of Hydraulic Engineering | 2023年 / 54卷 / 12期
关键词：
changing environment; hydrological drought; time-varying standardized streamflow index; time-varying threshold level method; Weihe River basin;
D O I：
10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20230283
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
In a changing environment, the joint impacts of climate change and human activities lead to non-stationary characteristics of streamflow processes, which urgently require the development of non-stationary hydrological drought assessment methods. The Weihe River basin in China was selected as the study area, and the non-stationary characteristics of its streamflow processes were analyzed based on the stationarity test, change-point test, and trend analysis methods. The generalized additive model for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) model and the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) method were used to construct the time-varying Standardized Streamflow Index(SSI,„) and the time-varying Threshold Level series(TLYaI ) considering the non-stationary characteristics of the streamflow to carry out the non-stationary hydrological drought assessment. Then, standardized precipitation index(SPI) and historical records of drought events were selected to validate the rationality of the two proposed non-stationary assessment methods. The results showed that the time of the change point for the annual streamflow series in the Weihe River basin was concentrated around the year 1990. The streamflow series had a significant(a<0.05) upward trend during the period after the change point(from 1991 to 2020). Comparison results between different design schemes showed that the SSI,„ and TLYaI were more robust than the traditional standardized streamflow index or threshold level methods, and can reasonably capture the drought and flood dynamics of the streamflow process. The validation results showed that drought and flood processes characterized by the proposed two non-stationary assessment methods were in high agreement with those characterized by the SPI series and historical records of drought events, revealing that these two non-stationary methods are more suitable for the non-stationary hydrological drought assessment in a changing environment. © 2023 International Research and Training Center on Erosion and Sedimentation and China Water and Power Press. All rights reserved.
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页码：1507 / 1518
页数：11
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