Carbon emission prediction model during the material production stage for cold zone residential buildings

A carbon emission prediction model was developed for the material production stage of residential buildings in Chinese cold zones for achieving the national carbon neutrality goals in residential construction. This study first analyzed the compositions and distributions of building material carbon emissions during production of 17 residential buildings. Linear regressions and ridge regressions were then used to relate the building material carbon emissions to the residential building space and volume design parameters. 10 carbon emission prediction models were then developed for the design parameters. The results show that one ridge regression model based on the number of building stories, the floor plan and the primary room configurations most accurately predicts the building material carbon emissions. © 2023 Press of Tsinghua University. All rights reserved.