Critical Transportation Distance Analysis for Express Goods Transportation Modes Considering Low Carbon Emissions

The increasing demand of express goods transportation has also brought a surge in carbon emissions. Adjustment of transportation structure and technological progress are the main approaches to reduce carbon emissions in the field of transportation. This paper proposes a market share rate model based on the Logit model, which includes service attributes such as economy, timeliness, stability, safety, convenience and environmental sustainability. The purpose is to analyze the competitive relationships and transportation distance among the array of express goods transportation modes. Based on the share rate model, the interaction relationship between the critical transportation distance and the speed changes of high-speed railway is analyzed, and the feasibility of the model is verified by examples. The results indicate that the absolute advantage of high-speed railway express transportation at 250 km·h-1 is 700 km to 1500 km, and the advantageous transportation time is 2.8 hours to 6.0 hours. When considering carbon emissions, the transportation distance of 600 km and above is the absolute dominant range of high-speed railway express transportation, with a dominant transportation time of 2.4 hours. The absolute advantage distance of high-speed railway over highways will expand by 100 kilometers on the left boundary of the interval for every 0.1 increase in carbon emission weight coefficient. Under the speeds of 200 km · h- 1, 250 km · h- 1, 300 km · h- 1, and 350 km · h- 1, the maximum increase in critical distance between highways and high-speed railway is achieved at 250 km · h- 1, which is 50% higher than the critical distance under 200 km·h-1 . When the carbon emission factor of air express transportation is reduced by half, the left boundary of its advantageous distance range will expand by 23%. © 2023 Science Press. All rights reserved.