Kinetic deduction and analysis of installed capacity and investment development for wind power in power system under “dual carbon” target

被引：0
|
作者：
Peng G. [1 ]
Xiang Y. [1 ]
Chen W. [1 ]
Xu B. [1 ]
Liu J. [1 ]
机构：
[1] College of Electrical Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu
来源：
Dianli Zidonghua Shebei/Electric Power Automation Equipment | 2022年 / 42卷 / 11期
关键词：
investment willingness; policy incentive; system dynamics; wind power; dual carbon” target;
D O I：
10.16081/j.epae.202205013
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
In order to deduce the development of wind power under the “dual carbon” target, the dynamics deduction model for the future development of wind power in power system is established by using the dynamic and systematic characteristics of system dynamics. The validity of the model is verified by historical data, and the future development trend of wind power is obtained through simulations. The model is combined with policy incentives and technological development progress for setting up differentiated scenarios to analyze the future wind power generation electricity, on-grid electricity, proportion of wind power consumption and carbon emission reduction under different conditions. Simulative results show that the policy support has a stronger incentive effect on the development of wind power installed capacity and green certificate market transactions than technological progress, and it has a significant promotion effect on the long-term stable development of wind power. And the technological progress has a more obvious effect on carbon emission reduction than policy support. Meanwhile, the technological progress in the early stage has a higher promotion impact on wind power generation electricity, on-grid electricity and consumption than that of policy support, and the higher rate of technological progress has a higher impact on wind power investment willingness in the early stage than that in the later stage under the condition of low policy support effort. © 2022 Electric Power Automation Equipment Press. All rights reserved.
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页码：70 / 77
页数：7
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