Research on LOPA scenarios identification and screening based on simplified Bow-tie model

Scenarios screening is the key to ensure the effectiveness of layer of protection analysis (LOPA). To screen out the scenarios accurately which need to carry out the LOPA analysis, this paper proposes a scenarios identification and screening method based on the most credible scene on the basis of Bow-tie model. First, use the Fault tree and Event tree to establish a simplified Bow-tie model which centers on loss events to identify the potential hazards of the analysis object, and obtain a list of hazard scenarios. Secondly, improve the scenario screening method based on the most credible scenario identification method. Use the improved screening method to filter the list of hazardous scenarios. Simultaneously determine the scenarios that need carry on LOPA analysis in the scenarios list. Finally, apply this method in the 105m³ crude oil storage tank of a reserve storage and use risk analysis screening tool (RAST) to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method can better consider the actual operation of the equipment and screen scenarios according to the internal risk standards of the enterprise, which makes the actual screening results obtained more instructive for the subsequent LOPA analysis. © 2021, Chemical Industry Press Co., Ltd. All right reserved.