Research on dynamic allocation mechanism of renewables quota in renewable portfolio standard

Energy is the basis of economic and social development. China inevitably encounters problems such as energy shortage and environmental pollution in the process of economic development. Vigorous development of renewable and clean energy has become a general trend, and for this reason, China has set up special mid- and long-term energy and environmental goals. Renewable portfolio standard is an effective way and an important means to achieve such goals. The system progressively and structurally adjusts China's energy structure by stipulating the proportion of renewable energy power generation in the total consumption of various provinces. The establishment and allocation of quota indicators is particularly important, but there is now little literature on this topic. Accordingly, based on the principles of fairness and efficiency in economic development, this paper establishes a dynamic allocation mechanism for renewable energy quota. From the perspective of efficiency, this paper uses the DEA-Malmquist index to measure the energy use efficiency of each province, and uses the total factor productivity to measure the change of energy use efficiency of each province and uses it as a quota parameter. From a fair perspective, this paper fully considers the impact of historical renewable energy power quotas on new quotas; and introduces a penalty factor to encourage all provinces to achieve quota targets and improve energy efficiency. Empirical analysis based on China's 2017 and 2018 data shows that the mechanism can reasonably allocate the new consumption to be generated due to the increase of the national quota target. The comprehensive consideration of historical quotas and energy utilization efficiency makes that all the increments of the new provincial quotas are all positive, but the proportion of quotas in some provinces may decline, which reflects the penalty-incentive principle in the quota system. Further, based on the empirical results, this paper provides some management suggestions on the development of renewable energy. © 2022, Editorial Board of Journal of Systems Engineering Society of China. All right reserved.