Climate change impact assessment on the hydrological response of the Tawa basin for sustainable water management

Sustainable water resources planning and management are essential for meeting the needs of both current and future generations while mitigating environmental impacts. River basins, integral components of ecosystems, are pivotal in implementing well-balanced and responsible management strategies. River basins serve as crucial sources for freshwater supply, irrigation, hydropower generation, and industrial activities. In the face of climate change, it becomes imperative to prioritize the hydrological impact assessment of river basins. This prioritization aims to ensure the resilience of water systems, recognizing the heightened challenges posed by changing climatic conditions. The present study examines the projected changes in the mean and high flow of Tawa River, an important Narmada River tributary that is critical for agriculture and hydropower generation using two conceptual lumped hydrological models, MIKE 11 NAM and GRJ4 respectively, and thirteen CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) for two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), SSP2-45 and SSP5-85, in the near (2030–2060) and far (2070–2100) futures. Our findings reveal a significant rise in both mean monthly and extreme discharge levels for two scenarios: SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Notably, the projections indicate that the mean annual discharge, extreme discharge levels, and their frequency are anticipated to rise considerably more dramatically in the period of far future (2070–2100), particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. This study underlines the importance of establishing a mitigation strategy for sustainable water resources and increased community resilience to climate change in the Tawa River Basin. © 2024 Elsevier B.V.