Improved Variable Fuzzy Set Method and Its Application in Life Loss Assessment of Dam Break

被引：0
|
作者：
Li W. [1 ,2 ]
Li Z. [1 ]
Ge W. [1 ]
Guo X. [1 ]
机构：
[1] School of Water Conservancy and Environment, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou
[2] School of Railway Engineering, Zhengzhou Railway Vocational and Technical College, Zhengzhou
来源：
Tianjin Daxue Xuebao (Ziran Kexue yu Gongcheng Jishu Ban)/Journal of Tianjin University Science and Technology | 2020年 / 53卷 / 04期
基金：
中国博士后科学基金; 中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词：
Dam break; Improved variable fuzzy; Loss of life; Risk ranking;
D O I：
10.11784/tdxbz201904069
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
To solve the problems of data dependency, the poor time lines, and applicability of the traditional empirical regression method for life loss assessment of dam break, considering the uncertainty of the life loss mechanism, the improved variable fuzzy set method has been introduced to analyze the risk consequences of life loss due to dam break. However, because the traditional empirical regression method is generally used to measure the index of linear change, and the calculation of relative membership degree of the index, such as reservoir capacity, downstream risk population, occurrence time of dam break, and risk assessment, changes nonlinearly in a specific interval, the accuracy of comprehensive evaluation results is directly affected. In this study, the formula for variable fuzzy relative difference degree was improved by logarithmic transformation and boundary constraints. An evaluation model of dam-break life loss based on the improved variable fuzzy set method was proposed. The problem of membership degree jump, which may occur when dealing with the index of nonlinear change, was solved. Furthermore, the linear correlation coefficient of membership degree calculation results was increased by 14% to 0.999.The improved evaluation model was applied to the risk-consequence evaluation of life loss of four collapsed reservoirs. The results were consistent with real disaster conditions and ranking of mortality rate. Therefore, the effectiveness of the improved evaluation model was verified. Moreover, the applicability of the variable fuzzy evaluation method in dealing with different characteristic indicators was improved. Therefore, this study provides an improved method for ranking reservoir risk and enriching risk management theory. © 2020, Editorial Board of Journal of Tianjin University(Science and Technology). All right reserved.
引用
收藏
页码：419 / 425
页数：6
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