Potential Distribution of Juniperus sabina under Climate Change in Eurasia Continent Based on MaxEnt Model

被引：4
|
作者：
Wang A. [1 ]
Lu D. [1 ]
Zhang G. [1 ]
Huang H. [1 ,2 ]
Wang Y. [3 ]
Hu S. [3 ]
Ao M. [3 ]
机构：
[1] College of Forestry, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot
[2] Inner Mongolia Academy of Forestry Sciences, Hohhot
[3] Forestry Bureau of Wushen Banner, Ordos City, Inner Mongolia, Ordos
来源：
Linye Kexue/Scientia Silvae Sinicae | 2021年 / 57卷 / 08期
关键词：
Climate change; Juniperus sabina; Maximum Entropy model; Potential geographical distribution area;
D O I：
10.11707/j.1001-7488.20210805
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
【Objective】Juniperus sabina is an important tree species for sand-fixing and soil-holding in rocky mountain slopes, river valleys and sand-covered hilly areas in Europe, Asia and America, which is of great significance for maintaining the stability of ecological environment. The paper tries to identify the dominant environmental variables that limit the distribution of J. sabina and to predict its suitable distribution area, in order to provide a theoretical basis for the administration and restoration of the species. 【Method】The geographic information of 267 existing populations and environmental variables(climate, elevation), were analyzed using three models of MaxEnt, BioClim and DoMain to simulate the potential suitable distribution areas for the species. The three models were compared and analyzed with the area under curve(AUC value) of receiver operating characteristic(ROC) and Kappa value. The potential geographical distribution patterns of the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM), the Mid-Holocene(MID), Current and Future(2070) based on the MaxEnt modelling are compared and the environmental variables that restrict the geographical distribution of J. sabina are discussed. 【Result】1)The percent contribution of the environmental variables, permutation importance and jackknife method showed that the geographical distribution of J. sabina was mainly affected by annual mean temperature, elevation and temperature seasonality. 2)The present suitable habitat area of J. sabina in Eurasia based on the MaxEnt model with climate variable simulation is 663.115×103 km2, concentrated in the range of 30° -50°N, with mountainous sites as the main suitable areas. 3)The suitable habitat areas of J. sabina in different geological historical periods indicated that Asia is the main distribution area, the suitable areas of Asia in the LGM, MID and Current period accounted for 86.9%, 87.0%, and 57.8%, respectively. In the Future periods, the suitable areas of Asia occupied with 84.1% under 2070(RCP2.6) and 79.2% under 2070(RCP8.5). From the Last Glacial Maximum, Current to the Future, the suitable habitat area increased first and followed by a decrease, and the distribution center tended to migration from north to south and then to further north. 【Conclusion】The geographical distribution of J. sabina was not only affected by climate and environmental variables(including temperature and precipitation), but also related to elevation. The distribution area is in accordance with the characteristics of Cupressaceae distribution zone. This study provides an important basis for the management and restoration, rehabilitation of the germplasm resources of J. sabina. © 2021, Editorial Department of Scientia Silvae Sinicae. All right reserved.
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页码：43 / 55
页数：12
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