Impact effect-based grey multivariable time delay model and its application

被引：0
|
作者：
Ye L. [1 ,2 ]
Dang Y. [1 ]
Wang J. [1 ]
机构：
[1] College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing
[2] Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Toronto Metropolitan University, Toronto
来源：
Xitong Gongcheng Lilun yu Shijian/System Engineering Theory and Practice | 2023年 / 43卷 / 05期
基金：
中国博士后科学基金; 中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词：
accumulative delay utility; grey forecasting model; grey system; IEGTDM(1; N); model; impact effect;
D O I：
10.12011/SETP2022-2405
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
Considering the impact phenomenon in the economic and social system, the impact effect is introduced into the modeling framework. First, the impact effect mechanism and its lagging accumulation mechanism are analyzed. On this basis, we introduce an impact effect item to describe the impact effect, and design the accumulative delay utility term based on Beta function to represent the lagging cumulative impact of impact factors on the system. Then, an impact effect-based grey multivariable time delay model (IEGTDM (1,N)) is constructed. A solution framework based on the whale algorithm is proposed for the parameter solution of the accumulative delay utility term. Finally, we use the energy intensity of Beijing and Shanghai under the impact of carbon trading policy to carry out empirical case analysis. The comparison with other grey prediction models, statistical prediction models and machine learning models shows that IEGTDM(1,N) model possesses better prediction performance, and the proposed model has a strong adaptability to the prediction modeling analysis under the impact effect. © 2023 Systems Engineering Society of China. All rights reserved.
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页码：1515 / 1533
页数：18
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