Synergistic Benefit Analysis of CO2 and NOx Emissions in Civil Aviation of China under Dual-carbon Target

As an important part of transportation, the civil aviation industry is of great significance to the implementation of the national carbon peak and carbon neutral policy. In this study, a comprehensive prediction model of carbon emission and air pollutant emission is constructed to fit the characteristics of civil aviation, and the growth of civil aviation aircraft and CO2 and NOx emissions in 2019-2050 is predicted. The synergistic control coordinate system and synergistic emission elasticity coefficient are used to evaluate the synergistic benefits of emission reduction. The research shows that the future annual increment of civil aviation aircraft will show a trend of continuous growth, which is closely related to the development of GDP, potential output, and labor efficiency. The improvement of fuel efficiency cannot change the current situation of the continuous growth of CO2 and NOx emissions in civil aviation. The development of sustainable aviation fuel will make the CO2 emission of civil aviation peak at 3.18×108 tons in 2045 and promote the continuous growth of NOx emission. This effect can be eliminated through technological advancement and the introduction of new power aircraft, and the peak time of CO2 emission in civil aviation will be advanced to 2040, in which the emission can be reduced to 2.65×108 tons. On this basis, accelerating the application of sustainable aviation fuel can make civil aviation CO2 emissions peak at 2.47×108 tons in 2037. Civil aviation cannot achieve a carbon peak in 2030. The proper introduction of sustainable aviation fuel, the acceleration of civil aviation technology improvement, and the application of new power aircraft are the best choices to strengthen the coordinated emission reduction of CO2 and NOx in civil aviation. Finally, some suggestions are provided that, the best way for the civil aviation industry to achieve dual carbon is to focus on improving aircraft fuel economy in the short term, accelerating the application of sustainable aviation fuel in the medium term, and realizing zero-carbon flight by relying on new powered aircraft in the long term. © 2022 Science Press. All rights reserved.