Time Series Modeling Method for Multi-photovoltaic Power Stations Considering Spatial Correlation and Weather Type Classification

被引：0
|
作者：
Wang J. [1 ]
Huang Y. [1 ]
Li C. [1 ]
Xiang K. [2 ]
Lin Y. [2 ]
机构：
[1] State Key Laboratory of Operation and Control of Renewable Energy & Storage Systems(China Electric Power Research Institute), Haidian District, Beijing
[2] State Grid Fujian Electric Power Economic Research Institute, Fuzhou, 350000, Fujian Province
来源：
Dianwang Jishu/Power System Technology | 2020年 / 44卷 / 04期
关键词：
Clustering; Correlation; Photovoltaics; Time series; Weather type;
D O I：
10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2019.0729
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
This paper presents a time series modeling method for photovoltaic power generation, taking into account the correlation of multi-photovoltaic power stations in geographical locations and weather types. It is suitable for medium- and long-term planning of power system and arrangement of power grid operation mode. Firstly, the influencing factors and expressions of time series correlation of photovoltaic power generation are analyzed. According to position and weather type, the photovoltaic output is divided into two parts: clear sky output and relative output. The clear sky output can accurately express the spatial correlation between photovoltaic power stations. The clustering recognition and decomposition of relative output can effectively reflect the approximate weather type of each power station and randomness of fluctuating output with the same rate. On this basis, a time series modeling method of photovoltaic power generation based on spatial correlation and weather type division is proposed. The time series generated by the modeling not only inherits the output characteristics of original series, such as mean, variance, probability distribution and fluctuation of single power station, but also retains the output correlation of multiple stations in different time dimensions. Finally, based on the measured output data of a photovoltaic power plant, simulation results verify validity of the proposed modeling method. © 2020, Power System Technology Press. All right reserved.
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页码：1376 / 1383
页数：7
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