Causes Analysis on Severity of Elderly Pedestrian Crashes Considering Latent Classes

被引：0
|
作者：
Jiao P.-P. [1 ]
Li R.-J. [1 ]
Wang J.-Y. [1 ]
Ge H.-J. [1 ]
Chen Y. [1 ]
机构：
[1] Beijing Key Laboratory of General Aviation Technology, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing
来源：
Jiaotong Yunshu Xitong Gongcheng Yu Xinxi/Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology | 2022年 / 22卷 / 05期
基金：
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词：
elderly pedestrians; heterogeneity; injury severity analysis; latent class cluster analysis; random parameters Logit model; traffic engineering;
D O I：
10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2022.05.034
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
The aging population is becoming more and more prominent, and the travel safety of elderly pedestrians is drawing attention. By proposing a two-step method that integrates latent class cluster analysis with random parameters Logit model, this paper explored the potential risk factors that contribute to the severity of elderly pedestrian crashes. We first cleaned the crash data of elderly pedestrians aged 65 and older with motor vehicles in North Carolina from 2007 to 2019. To eliminate the unobserved heterogeneity inherent in the crash data, a latent class cluster analysis was carried out to determine the optimal number of clusters based on the goodness of fit index. Three clusters of data were divided, and their characteristics were summarized. Then a random parameters Logit model was developed for each cluster to further explore the unobserved heterogeneity within the cluster, while the marginal effects of significant variables were calculated to quantify their impact on the probability of accident severity. The results show that the random parameters Logit model has better goodness of fit. The parameter estimates vary across clusters, and some variables are significant only within specific clusters. In cluster 1, "ambulance assistance" is a random variable, "accidents in the city" is a random variable in cluster 2, and no random variables are found in cluster 3, which degenerated to a multinomial Logit model. The results provide more reliable and accurate causes of traffic accidents in elderly pedestrians to traffic engineers and policymakers, supporting the formulation of safety plans for elderly pedestrians both in theory and technology. © 2022 Science Press. All rights reserved.
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页码：328 / 336
页数：8
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