Picking the ICT technology winners - Longitudinal analysis of 21st century technologies based on the Gartner hype cycle 2008-2017: Trends, tendencies, and weak signals

被引:0
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作者
Kaivo-Oja J. [1 ,2 ]
Lauraéus T. [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Knudsen M.S. [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Kazimieras Simonavicius University, Vilnius
[2] Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku School of Economics, University of Turku
[3] Aalto School of Economics, Aalto University
关键词
151 Gartner's hype cycle technologies; Disruptive technologies; Forecasting; Gartner's hype cycle; ICT technology innovations; ICT technology winners; Longitudinal index analysis; Technology tendencies; Technology trends; Trend analysis; Trends; Weak signals;
D O I
10.1504/IJWET.2020.113065
中图分类号
学科分类号
摘要
We analyse longitudinal data of the 2008-2017 Gartner hype cycles and key ICT technologies (151 technologies) in the world. In this study, we have calculated six different index analyses. Our analyses use the following index analyses: 1) ranking index analysis; 2) technology power index analysis; 3) better than other technology power index analysis; 4) triangulation index analysis; 5) weak signal analysis; 6) outlayer analysis. These six analyses are novel analyses. We ranked the information from hype cycles giving a rank for every observed technology. Information of calculations is public and open in the internet publications of the Gartner Ltd. We were able to see the top ten technologies: 1) augmented reality; 2) human augmentation; 3) quantum computing; 4) speech recognition; 5) mobile robots; 6) autonomous vehicles; 7) speech-to-speech translation; 8) mesh network sensor; 9) local-aware applications; 10) idea management. Copyright © 2020 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.
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页码:216 / 264
页数:48
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