Impact of climate change on building heating energy consumption in Tianjin

This paper investigated the variation of building heating energy consumption caused by global warming in Tianjin, China. Based on the hourly historical and monthly projected future(B1/A1B emissions scenarios) meteorological data, the variation of those relevant meteorological parameters was first analyzed. A TRNSYS simulation model for a reference building was introduced to investigate historical variation of offlce building energy consumption. The results showed that the 10-year-average heating energy consumption of 2001–2010 had reduced by 16.1% compared to that of 1961–1970. By conducting principal component analysis and regression analysis, future variation of building heating load was studied. For B1/A1B emissions scenarios, the multi-year-average heating load was found to decrease by 9.7%(18.1%)/ 10.2%(22.7%) compared to that of 1971–2010 by 2011– 2050(2051–2100).