Comprehensive Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Dynamics in Bangladesh: Infection Trends and Variants (2020-2023)

The first case of COVID-19 was detected in Bangladesh on 8 March 2020. Since then, the Government of Bangladesh (GoB) has implemented various measures to limit the transmission of COVID-19, including widespread testing facilities across the nation through a laboratory network for COVID-19 molecular testing. This study aimed to analyze the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Bangladesh by conducting COVID-19 testing and genomic surveillance of the virus variants throughout the pandemic. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from authorized GoB collection centers between April 2020 and June 2023. The viral RNA was extracted and subjected to real-time PCR analysis in icddr,b's Virology laboratory. A subset of positive samples underwent whole-genome sequencing to track the evolutionary footprint of SARS-CoV-2 variants. We tested 149,270 suspected COVID-19 cases from Dhaka (n = 81,782) and other districts (n = 67,488). Of these, 63% were male. The highest positivity rate, 27%, was found in the >60 years age group, followed by 26%, 51-60 years, 25% in 41-50 years, and the lowest, 9% in under five children. Notably, the sequencing of 2742 SARS-CoV-2 genomes displayed a pattern of globally circulating variants, Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron, successively replacing each other over time and causing peaks of COVID-19 infection. Regarding the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, it was observed that the positivity rate increased with age compared to the under-5 age group in 2020 and 2021. However, these trends did not remain consistent in 2022, where older age groups, particularly those over 60, had a lower positivity rate compared to other age groups due to vaccination. The study findings generated data on the real-time circulation of different SARS-CoV-2 variants and the upsurge of COVID-19 cases in Bangladesh, which impacted identifying hotspots and restricting the virus from further transmission. Even though there is currently a low circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in Bangladesh, similar approaches of genomic surveillance remain essential for monitoring the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants or other potential pathogens that could lead to future pandemics.