France's Political Crisis

Owing to the far-right Rassemblement National's (RN) strong showing in the European Parliament elections in May, French President Emmanuel Macron abruptly dissolved the French National Assembly and called for elections three weeks later. He hoped centre-right and centre-left voters would decisively coalesce behind him and against the RN. Ultimately, due to the emergence of a 'Republican Front' and its tactical voting, the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire alliance finished first, Macron's centrist bloc second and the RN third. No group gained an absolute majority, leaving a hung parliament. This could have tectonic consequences for the French political landscape and European politics. If efforts to forge a centrist coalition fail, a provisional government - possibly a 'technocratic' one - would probably materialise. This would mean a much less audible France on the European stage; minimum spending that would drain material support for Ukraine; and new elections in a year.