Change in the global burden of depression from 1990-2019 and its prediction for 2030

Objective: Depression is a global health challenge, but only a few studies have fully assessed and predicted the disease burden. This study described the trend of global depression burden from 1990 to 2019 through agestandardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized disability-adjusted life rate (ASDR), and predicted the number of cases of depression during 2020-2030. Methods: Linear regression analysis was used to calculate the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in the age-standardized rates. The trends of global depression burden from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed by age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI) across various regions. Finally, we used the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model to predict the disease burden in the coming 10 years. Results: Globally, the ASIR of depression decreased from 3681.24 per 100,000 population in 1990 to 3588.25 per 100,000 population in 2019 and the EAPC was -0.29%. ASDR also decreased, following a similar trend as the ASIR. The highest ASDR was observed in adults aged 60-64 years. The burden of depressive illness was higher in women, with the greatest increase in incidence in low SDI areas. BAPC predicted that the worldwide ASIR and ASDR of depression would stabilize from 2020 to 2030, with an increasing number of cases. By 2030, the ASIR was estimated to be 2519.88 per 100,000 men and 3835.11 per 100,000 women. Conclusion: From 1990 to 2019, the global burden of depression remained significant, especially among women. It is important to address depression in older people, and it is therefore necessary to develop measures for prevention.