Predicting the Distribution of Neoceratitis asiatica (Diptera: Tephritidae), a Primary Pest of Goji Berry in China, under Climate Change

Simple Summary: The fruit fly, Neoceratitis asiatica Becker, is a frugivorous pest that causes substantial losses in the production of the goji berry, Lycium barbarum L. Identifying its distribution is significant for the monitoring and prevention of the pest. In this study, the MaxEnt model with optimized parameters was employed to predict the current and future (2050s and 2070s) distribution of the pest. We found that temperature and precipitation were the primary environmental factors influencing its distribution. The suitable habitats were predominantly distributed in northwestern China under various climate scenarios, and the projected suitable area in the future generally exhibited a decrease compared with the current projections. Climate warming affects the growth and development of pests, resulting in changes in their geographical distribution, which increases the difficulty in terms of prevention and control. The fruit fly, Neoceratitis asiatica (Becker), is a predominant frugivorous pest that causes serious yield loss in the goji berry, Lycium barbarum L. In recent years, with the expansion of cultivation area, the damage induced by the pest has become increasingly severe, significantly impeding the production of the goji berry. In this study, the potential suitable habitats of N. asiatica under current and future climate scenarios were simulated and predicted using the optimal MaxEnt model, based on the screening distribution records and environmental factors. The changes in the pest distribution under climate change were determined using ArcGIS. The results showed that the best combination of parameters for MaxEnt were feature combination (FC) = LQPT and regularization multiplier (RM) = 1. The dominant environmental factors influencing pest distribution were mean temperature of driest quarter, mean temperature of coldest quarter and precipitation of coldest quarter. Under different climate conditions, the suitable habitats of the pest primarily ranged between 27 degrees-47 degrees N and 73 degrees-115 degrees E. Under current climate conditions, the area of moderately and highly suitable habitats was 42.18 x 10(4) km(2), and mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia (13.68 x 10(4) km(2)), Gansu (9.40 x 10(4) km(2)), Ningxia (5.07 x 10(4) km(2)), Qinghai (4.10 x 10(4) km(2)), and Xinjiang (3.97 x 10(4) km(2)) Provinces. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable area was projected to be lower than the current ones, except SSP245-2050s and SSP370-2070s, and the centroids of suitable habitats were mainly shifted to the northeast, except SSP370-2050s and SSP585-2070s. Our results provide valuable guidance for the monitoring and management of N. asiatica, as well as the selection of pest-free goji berry cultivation sites.