Clarifying urban flood response characteristics and improving interpretable flood prediction with sparse data considering the coupling effect of rainfall and drainage pipeline siltation

With climate warming and accelerated urbanisation, severe urban flooding has become a common problem worldwide. Frequent extreme rainfall events and the siltation of drainage pipes further increase the burden on urban drainage networks. However, existing studies have not fully considered the effects of rainfall and pipeline siltation on the response characteristics of flooding when constructing numerical models of urban flooding simulations. To solve this problem, a surface-subsurface coupling model was constructed by combining the SaintVenant equation, Manning equation, a one-dimensional pipeline model (SWMM), and a two-dimensional surface overflow model (LISFLOOD-FP). Then, the SWMM model considering pipeline siltation and the two-dimensional surface overflow model (LISFLOOD-FP) were coupled with the flow exchange governing equation, and the urban flooding response characteristics considering the coupling effect of "rainfall and drainage pipeline siltation" were analysed. To enhance the solvability of waterlogging prediction, an intelligent prediction model of urban flooding based on Bayes-CNN-BLSTM was established by combining a convolutional neural network (CNN), bidirectional long short-term memory neural network (BLSTM), Bayesian optimisation (Bayes), and an interpretable loss function error correction method. The actual rainfall events and flooding processes recorded by the monitoring equipment at Huizhou University were used to calibrate and verify the model. The results show that in the Rainfall 1 and Rainfall 2 scenarios, the overload rates of the pipelines in the current siltation scenario were 60.06 % and 68.37 %, respectively, and the proportions of overflow nodes were 24.87 % and 25.89 %, respectively. When the drainage network was initially put into operation, the overload rates of the pipeline were 36.67 % and 41.16 %, and the overflow nodes accounted for 3.05 % and 4.06 %, respectively. The inundated area and volume of urban flooding increased when the combined siltation coefficient (CSC) was 0.2; therefore, two desilting schemes were determined. Under Rainfall 1, Rainfall 2, and the four rainfall recurrence periods, the Bayes-CNN-BLSTM model had clear advantages in terms of accuracy, reliability, and robustness.