Residual life prediction of high-pressure pipeline erosion based on theGrey MarkovModel

During fracking operations, erosion can lead to perforation and pipe bursting at manifold elbows ofhigh-pressure pipelines. This workpresents a method for estimating the remaining life of a pressure pipeline due to erosion. Firstly, numerical simulation is used todetermine the erosion region of the elbow and collect the wall thickness thinning of erosion over time. Then a grey Markov model isdeveloped to predict the remaining life of the high-pressure elbow due to erosion in combination with the wall thickness cylinderprinciple of the pressure pipeline. The results show that erosion thins over time and the erosion area tends to expand. The predictionerror range of the grey model for pipe wall erosion thinning is within 4%, but after correction of the Markov model, the predictionaccuracy is improved by 71.33%. According to the cylinder theory of wallthickness of a pressure pipeline, the residual erosion life ofa high-pressure elbow is estimated to be about 220 days, and this method can be used as the theoretical basis for the overhaul andreplacement cycle of a pressure pipeline