Food security amid the COVID-19 pandemic in Central Asia: Evidence from rural Tajikistan

Food security has been long understudied in the context of Central Asia. We present an analysis examining household-level food demand for Tajikistan and assessing the magnitude of its food security changes during the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on an extensive household survey data set from Tajikistan, we estimate the expenditure, income, and price elasticities for nine food categories using the QUAIDS model. Then, we develop a microsimulation model using the estimated elasticities to assess the dual impact of declining remittance income and rising food prices stemming from the pandemic shock. There are significant differences in demand elasticities across food groups, with high elasticities observed for nutritious foods, such as meat, fruit, eggs, and milk, in rural households. Moreover, our findings show that changes in remittance income and food prices significantly negatively affected food security for rural households during the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings have important implications for policymakers concerned about rural livelihoods and food security in remittance-receiving economies during the post-pandemic period.