Mediators of monocyte chemotaxis and matrix remodeling are associated with mortality and pulmonary fibroproliferation in patients with severe COVID-19

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) has a fibroproliferative phase that may be followed by pulmonary fibrosis. Pulmonary fibrosis following COVID-19 pneumonia has been described at autopsy and following lung transplantation. We hypothesized that protein mediators of tissue remodeling and monocyte chemotaxis are elevated in the plasma and endotracheal aspirates of critically ill patients with COVID-19 who subsequently develop features of pulmonary fibroproliferation. We enrolled COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU with hypoxemic respiratory failure. (n = 195). Plasma was collected within 24h of ICU admission and at 7d. In mechanically ventilated patients, endotracheal aspirates (ETA) were collected. Protein concentrations were measured by immunoassay. We tested for associations between protein concentrations and respiratory outcomes using logistic regression adjusting for age, sex, treatment with steroids, and APACHE III score. In a subset of patients who had CT scans during hospitalization (n = 75), we tested for associations between protein concentrations and radiographic features of fibroproliferation. Among the entire cohort, plasma IL-6, TNF-alpha, CCL2, and Amphiregulin levels were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. In addition, higher plasma concentrations of CCL2, IL-6, TNF-alpha, Amphiregulin, and CXCL12 were associated with fewer ventilator-free days. We identified 20/75 patients (26%) with features of fibroproliferation. Within 24h of ICU admission, no measured plasma proteins were associated with a fibroproliferative response. However, when measured 96h-128h after admission, Amphiregulin was elevated in those that developed fibroproliferation. ETAs were not correlated with plasma measurements and did not show any association with mortality, ventilator-free days (VFDs), or fibroproliferative response. This cohort study identifies proteins of tissue remodeling and monocyte recruitment are associated with in-hospital mortality, fewer VFDs, and radiographic fibroproliferative response. Measuring changes in these proteins over time may allow for early identification of patients with severe COVID-19 at risk for fibroproliferation.